Monday, September 07, 2009

Doing the math: Argentina would have 60% chance

Not that I consider mathematics and football having a lot in common or that I believe a mathematician could give us an indication of the chances that a team has to qualify for the next World Cup, but I just read on Globo Esporte (a Brazilian sports portal) that Argentina have a 60% chance to make it to South Africa.

A mathematician called Tristao GARCIA said Argentina are still favourites to clinch that fourth spot which guarantees a ticket to the next World Cup.

He added that the magical numbers to qualify would be 28 or 29, but that number could change given the fact that a lot of contenders will face each other and some will drop valuable points along the way.

To sum up what he has stated. Here are the chances for each team to qualify to South Africa.

Brazil are already in.
Chile 99%
Paraguay 99%
Argentina 60%
Colombia 11%
Ecuador 14%
Uruguay 14%
Venezuela 3%
Bolivia and Perú are mathematically out of contention.

To come up with those percentages, he took into consideration the difficulty of the remaining fixtures for each of the teams fighting for fourth and fifth place.

What's interesting to see is that GARCIA says Argentina would see their chances reduced to 48% if they lose in Paraguay, but a win in Asunción would see our chances improve to 90%.

Agree or disagree with him, there's no denying that this match is as crucial as it gets for MARADONA's side.

So get your calculators and do your homework.


Anonymous said...

It is really complicated right now. Uruguay can be a HUGE threat, even though they are 4 points behind. Uruguay is playing the teams they need to play and beat to qualify for the WC. They play Colombia,Ecuador and Argentina. Their destiny is in their hands. We need 6 points for our next 2 games. How will the team respond?

Round 16-These are the games that are left.

Bolivia host Ecuador.
Uruguay host Colombia.
Paraguay host Argentina.

If we win and if Ecuador and Colombia drop points we will be +5 or +4 on the both of them. But if we lose and Colombia and and Ecuador win games away, then we are out of a WC spot, we will be in 6th place. I do not think that will happen because Uruguay are fighting for their lives. Best case for is, Ecuador losing to Bolivia and Colombia and Uruguay sharing a point, even a loss in Paraguay will leave us in the 4th spot with a +1. With a win, that will put us 4 points on Colombia and 5 on Ecuador.

Round 17-

Colombia host Chile
Ecuador host Uruguay
Argentina host Peru

Round 18-

Uruguay host Argentina
Paraguay Host Colombia
Chile host Ecuador.

Round 18 REALLY scares me. Paraguay and Chile will be locked in for a spot for the WC. Even though Paraguay and Chile are playing home games I wonder if they will lay down and let Ecuador and Colombia win those games just to make it tough on us.


Victor said...

I believe winning against paraguay will almost guarantee a place.
We have 22 pts with colombia and ecuador being the only ones being able to pass us by winning if we lose.
If we win, Theres a chance Colombia or ecuador lose. Keeping us with 25 points and the one behind us with 23 and before him 20. So theres no way we can drop from atleast 5th place if we win unless BOTH colombia and ecuador win every match in the next 3. So to me, Winning is like qualifying. Of course theres no 100 percent guarantee we will qualify if we win but i too will give it around a 90%. One thing we cant do, is lose. I dont care if we win one and tie the other 2. By winning just one and not losing the other 2 we will more more more more than likely qualify.

Rune said...

Yeah...well I said even before the Equador game that we needed 2 more wins from the next 5 games, to qualify for the WC. 28 points. One doesn't really have to be a genious to see this, it's just common sense and being able to "reading a table".
Now I'll say that we are almost guaranteed to finish top 4 with a win against Para. A draw against Para and Uru + a win against Peru will probably also be enough. I am sure we won't win in Acuncion, so I will be very happy with a draw.

Mohd said...

M13 said...

I am surprised at all the comments. Is it really a surprise that Argentina lost. People have been commenting on this blog for months that the selection and tactics was flawed. A lot of blame has been put on the centre backs but that is unfair. They lack experience and are not the best around. THe fact that they made elementary errors is not their fault. If they were the best players around i would hold them responsible. They are not and the blame should be laid at the door of the manager.

The current soul searching is pointless. If a coach ignores his best and in form player for his friends and relatives what does anyone really expect. Passion and committment can only take you so far. Imagine Brasil with Fabianno excluded in favour of Pato who is a pin up, Kaka ignored in favour of Alex, Cafu re called despite being over the hill and a non scoring forward like Vagner Love who despite his poor returns is never dropped.

Argentina's problems stem from the fact that the best players have been dliberately excluded in favour of a clique. Tevez has scored 1 goal in the qualifies yet he is always a starter. He has scored 8 goals in 51 appearances so what excatly is the reason for not dropping him. I forgot he is hardworking but has failed to deliver. Fabianno displaced Adrianno and Vagner Love but his goal scoring record says it all.

I do not want to go on about the marginilisation of the best players in favour of the clique. Does anyone really expect that a side featuring Veron, Zanetti, Heinze, Jonas and Tevez will frighten any half decent team. The issue is not about qualification but how realistic are the prospects of this shambles of a team.

In the last 4 games they have conceded 11 goals and scored 2. This says it all. The players spend more time giving sound bites and sounding like American wrestlers than performing. There was non stop talk from Messi and Tevez about what Argentina will do . Its already started for the Paraguay game. The players should STFU and let their football do the talking.

Arghentina should get a result against Paraguay as they are not as good as Brasil. I watched them play and see them as a rugged but limited outfit.

The reality is that Brasil did not play that well. They were excellent in defence but Robinho and Elanno did very little. Argentina huffed and puffed and were undone by their lapses. For this team to reach its potential the coach has to select the best players and not look for ways to exclude them in favour of the clique. Members of the clique are always selected irrespective of form or actual performane. The coach needs to rise above petty diferences and select players based on merit and not favouritism and family connections. If nothing changes the fans should expect more rainy days.How bad do things have to get for the right action to be taken.

salvio supporter said...

Well, it's safe to say that Paraguay is not as good as Brasil, but they play home, they won't wait until we attack. This time we should play like Brasil played on Saturday, but there you go... Maradona is on the bench. As it's been analyzed in this blog, scoring first should give us what we need. Yet it will be terribly dangerous to attack as we did the last match, considering the lame defense we have. I'm starting to think we should have played for a draw against Brasil. Paraguay would be much easier if we had, at least, won one point.

It seems we play last tomorrow. I'm not sure, but if that's the case, and the other results are convenient, my strategy would be to draw against Paraguay, win against Perú here in Argentina, and see what can be done against Uruguay. Maradona will have like two months to, this time, SERIOUSLY prepare everything. But now, winning against Paraguay is a suicide.

Paulina said...

This one's for you, Seba ...