Friday, April 17, 2009

2009 NBA Playoffs Preview - By Dave, Blogger Of The Round Table

Alright, the playoffs season has finally arrived! As our friend Roy is getting excited with the NHL post season in Montréal, I’m geared up for the NBA’s.

Things are looking very predictable this year as compared to last year, from neutral fan point of view. As always our attention will focus on the Tall Albiceleste. Of course there is a big loss for us here but also a little sense of optimism from the others.

Once again, I was on the mission to look for someone who can come up with something interesting to talk about in this year’s Playoff preview. And I succeed in finding that right person.

Dave from the NBA Round Table has been a regular visitor on our blog since last year’s playoffs and I have always been personal fan of his knowledge and expertise on the orange game ball. Not only that, he is also big supporter of Chelsea. He was more than willing enough to give us his take about what’s in store for us this year. And here are his opinion on the Tall Albiceleste.

Manu GINOBILI

How big a loss is Manu GINOBILI?

The Spurs losing GINOBILI is the equivalent of Boston losing Paul PIERCE (written before KG's injury news!). Could Boston win a Championship without their Finals MVP from a year ago? Not a chance. Unfortunately, the situation is even worse than that for San Antonio because not only are they without their Paul PIERCE, but they also have no fourth star as good as Rajon RONDO and no second big man as good as Kendrick PERKINS. In other words, the Spurs are dead in the water. San Antonio has no hope of contending for a title this season, they simply do not have the talent, not without GINOBILI. 

Manu GINOBILI is an All-NBA caliber player -- although he doesn't always get the recognition he deserves because of the sacrifices he makes (starting, minutes, shots, touches). Teams cannot replace a player of that quality with a bench player and expect to maintain their contender status.

The only question left to answer on San Antonio, is when will they lose and to whom? Tim DUNCAN has never missed the playoffs, and never lost in the first round. There is an all too real possibility that his streak of playoff series victories ends this year.
It's a shame we won't get to see Manu this postseason, the league is worse off for it. Manu is both a great showman, and a great player.

Fabricio OBERTO

Unfortunately, it looks like OBERTO is the fifth big man in POPOVICH's rotation -- behind Tim DUNCAN, Matt BONNER, Drew GOODEN, Kurt THOMAS -- and thus it appears that he won't play a role in the postseason for San Antonio.

This disappoints me because I rate OBERTO as San Antonio’s fifth or sixth best player. I admire his passing, his intelligence, and most of all I admire his movement without the ball. I think San Antonio plays it's most fluid and cohesive offensive game when OBERTO is on the floor. Then add in his quality rebounding, and good all round defensive work ... and you have a wonderful role player who does a lot of little things that add tremendous value to a team.

I would hold out some hope for OBERTO's playing time and that's the general struggles San Antonio has had with it's form as the season comes to a close. POPOVICH is still searching for his best rotation and if he continues to fail in his quest to find it, then his attention may turn to the tried and trusted Fabricio OBERTO.

San Antonio's Playoff Chances -- Do San Antonio have a shot at winning a title? No. Do they have a shot at winning a playoff series or two? Absolutely.The Spurs have a great match up on their hands with the Dallas Mavericks. These two teams have been long time foes and had a tremendous battle in the playoffs a few years ago, back in 2006, when Dallas knocked the Spurs out in seven games and ended up making the Finals. This should be a really good series, a close series, a series that could go either way. Watch out for Tony PARKER, he destroyed the Mavericks during the regular season, dropping 31.3 points a night and adding 7.3 assists for good measure. The Mavericks have nobody who can stop him, their pick and roll defense is weak and their guards struggle mightily against quick point guards. Tony PARKER has had some incredible individual performances in the playoffs in the past, but this might top all of them.The Spurs have one major advantage in the playoffs, and that's the playoff draw. They've managed to avoid the LA Lakers until the Conference Finals, and will only have to play New Orleans or Denver in the second round. The Spurs are no sure thing to get that far, but if they play to their fullest ability then they'll certainly have a shot at a Conference Finals appearance.

Walter HERRMANN

It's been an odd season for HERRMANN. He didn't get much of an opportunity in the first half of the season, and when he did he was poor -- particularly his jump shooting, hitting under 39% of his shots from the field and only 33% from three point range. However, once Detroit gave him some consistent minutes, and touches, HERRMANN's performances improved considerably.

For the past month and a half HERRMANN has been nailing 46% of his shots from the field and 42% of his three point attempts. This hot shooting has got him back in the picture with the Pistons, but in truth, he still hasn't solidified his role in Detroit.

It's somewhat difficult to try and predict how Detroit will use HERRMANN in the playoffs because the Pistons still haven't found a rotation they're comfortable with, and the whole Iverson situation has clouded everything. Also, Detroit's numerous injuries over the past month has forced them to dig deeper into the bench and it's hard to figure out who stays and who lose their place (minutes wise), now that the main players are back in action.

I expect the Pistons to use a nine man rotation once the playoffs arrive. It's rare that teams go beyond a nine man rotation in the playoffs, and several squads even go with as few as eight players. The Pistons will roll with their starting five of STUCKEY, HAMILTON, PRINCE, McDYESS and WALLACE. Kwame BROWN is playing really well right now so Michael CURRY may keep him in the starting lineup and use Sheed or Dice off the bench instead, but that'll pretty much be it.

Detroit's best player over the last month has arguably been their third string point guard Will BYNUM, and he figures to be their primary backup guard off the bench for the playoffs. Detroit will likely use a two big men off the bench, because they have five quality bigs and their depth there is a major strength for their team, and that figures to be MAXIELL. That would leave Amir JOHNSON as a deep reserve, and out of the rotation. The final player in the nine man rotation will be a backup wing and will come down to a battle between AFFALO and HERRMANN, and for now I expect AFFALO to win because Coach CURRY loves AFFALO’s defense.

Walter Herrmann figures to be the deep reserve (like Amir) after that, a combo forward who can fit into several different roles based on how Detroit needs to alter their game plan. If they need size on the perimeter, then Walter will play some small forward. Or if the Pistons need to go small and space the floor, Walter may get some minutes at power forward. Teams generally don't go beyond a nine man rotation in the playoffs, so Walter will likely only see spot minutes in the postseason unless there's a specific matchup he's required for.

But like I said, it's next to impossible to say anything definitive about how Detroit will use their bench, and specifically HERRMANN, due to the huge uncertainty facing the team over the past few months and how unsettled their regular rotation is.

I'd love to see HERRMANN join a squad that would commit to giving him playing time (Detroit has failed to do so for two years now!). San Antonio are the team I think about the most, because I think he'd be a great replacement for Matt BONNER, and that HERRMANN would be a terrific fit alongside Tim DUNCAN in a small ball lineup. He'd be a matchup nightmare that would go for at least 15 points per game, like he did late in his rookie season for the Charlotte Bobcats.

Detroit's Playoff Chances -- Somewhere between slim and none, and slim just left the building.The Pistons will lose in the first round against the Cavs. They can battle and make the games scrappy and close, but the Cavs will always have that extra firepower to bail themselves out. Detroit are simply out-manned and out-gunned heading into this series.I think the draw was somewhat unfavourable for HERRMANN, and his possible playing time, because (1) Cleveland are an excellent interior team with great rebounding, and Big Z causes them problems, and, (2) LeBRON is the best player in the NBA and Coach CURRY will want his best defenders (Tayshaun, Rip, Afflalo) to spend time on him. After seeing the draw, I think HERRMANN's playoff minutes under great threat. Still I think the Pistons need HERRMANN's offense, his shooting ability and scoring, and that they could get a nice boost from playing him some small ball lineups. I think Detroit need to find some extra firepower to hang with the Cavaliers, and HERRMANN might be the best option they have (backup bigs don't provide much offense, neither does Afflalo, too much pressure on starting lineup).

Luis SCOLA

Luis SCOLA has had a terrific season for the Rockets, and for my money, he's been the Rockets second best player this season. SCOLA has been on fire since the turn of the year scoring 13.7ppg on 55.5% shooting, while also hauling down 9.5 rebounds a night.

Rebounding is SCOLA's best asset and hugely valuable to the Rockets, but it's not his only contribution. He is a multi-dimensional player who affects the game in many ways for the Rockets. SCOLA is a team first player and we see this in a bunch of areas offensively - using his good passing skills, sturdy screens both on and off the ball which free up his teammates, and great movement without the ball (cutting to the rim) to help create some player movement. Defensively, SCOLA is a solid part of one of the best defensive ball clubs in the NBA, and is the Rockets best big man at defending the pick and roll -- he does a great job trapping the ball handler. At his most basic level, Luis SCOLA does whatever dirty work needs doing and is one of the best glue guys in the NBA.

The Rockets lost Tracy McGRADY to an injury midway through the season, and with that injury the Rockets chances of winning a title flew out the window. Houston desperately needed McGRADY's creativity, and ability to beat defenders off the dribble, in order to balance out their squad and win at the highest level. Without that dynamic weapon the Rockets have become too predictable and they will lose in the playoffs.

Houston aren't a contender, but they will be an extremely tough out. They're one of the finest defensive squads in the NBA, very good on the backboards, physical squad, and have good depth. This isn't a team that's going to go out easily, it'll be a hard fought battle, but it will eventually happen.

Houston's Playoff Chances -- The Rockets title chances vanished the minute Tracy McGRADY got injured. So, I think Houston will either lose in the first round (Blazers) or the second round (Lakers).I'm very excited about this Blazers-Rockets series. This is my pick for the series to watch in the first round. We have two very good teams who are evenly matched, and there's a huge amount of individual talent on the court.I love how these two teams match up. In some ways they're so similar; excellent rebounding, slow tempo, half court basketball and complete opposites in other ways. The Rockets are a elite defense/mediocre offense while the Blazers are an elite offense/mediocre defense. Moreover, the vast difference in their players experience, a battle of the Rockets vast experience with YAO Ming, Ron ARTEST, Shane BATTIER, Luis SCOLA, Brent BARRY, Deke versus the youth of Portland with ROY, ODEN, ALDRIDGE, BATUM, OUTLAW, RODRIGUEZ, FRYE.Perhaps the most interesting subplot to this series, is the matchup between Luis SCOLA and LaMarcus AlLDRIDGE. Sometimes in the NBA there's just players who for some reason get a hot hand against you, and there's nothing you can do about it, and for SCOLA it appears that ALDRIDGE may be his guy.

ALDRIDGE dropped 23ppg on 48% shooting during the season series. He also got to the free throw at will, averaging 9.3 FT attempts a game, versus the four he normally gets. ALDRIDGE upped his rebounding to, to 8.7 a night. SCOLA just couldn't seem to stop him, and that forced ADELMAN to go with Chuck HAYES, since he's their best defender at the four spot, for increased minutes (24mpg versus Portland). It wasn't all one way either, SCOLA was giving ALDRIDGE the business on the other end of the court, dropping 15ppg (69% from the field) and 7.5rpg in just 28 minutes (imagine if they gave him 40 minutes like ALDRIDGE got? 21.5ppg, 10.5rpg?). How well SCOLA defends ALDRIDGE man-to-man could very well be the deciding factor in this series. The Rockets desperately need to limit ALDRIDGE's offense, because when you combine that with ROY's low efficiency and the lack of other 20ppg scorers, the Rockets could put the clamps on Portland's offense. They also need SCOLA to defend ALDRIDGE well enough to allow Luis to stay on the court, because the downgrade from SCOLA to HAYES is huge, and the Rockets badly need SCOLA’s production and offensive ability.I think this series will go six or seven games and either team could win it. I think we might have a great series on our hands here. Houston should be deemed the slight favourite, but it's real close.

So now you will know what are the challenges in store for the Tall Albiceleste. Will OBERTO be given some quality minutes to contribute something for the ailing Spurs? Will we see HERRMANN in action for the Pistons? Or will SCOLA be able to finally lift the Rockets from their first round jinx Watch out for this space.

On behalf of the Mundo Albiceleste team, we like to say a Big Thank You to Dave for his contribution and we will look forward to hear more from him as we head into the playoffs fever.

29 comments:

pacejmiller said...

Hey thanks for your comments on my blog. I really liked your analysis, especially with the individual player breakdowns! I agree about Ginobili, but I think if they were playing a weaker opponent in the first round (like seeds 4-8 in the East) they would've had a chance. Also agree that Detroit has no chance!

Melvin said...

Well I pity Detroit for having no chance at all. I mean they acquired Iverson in hopes he could help them but exactly the oppsite. Too bad!

NDEddieMac said...

Nice take, I like the centering on Argentinian players. While I agree Ginobili is a huge loss, I'm not ready to throw in the towel just yet. You are right tho, LAL probably takes the West easy. Good stuff

Kofi Bofah said...

I am swinging past to check you out.

Bulls are up 1-0 now. Rose looked very good.

Manu is out and I have a question for you.

Would you rather have Manu play for Argentina as an Olympian or for the Spurs?

I am guessing that you would rather want him to represent Buenos Aries - but a lot of Texans would beg to differ!

Akash said...

Albiceleste goals on saturday:Emanuel Villa,Emanuel Ledesma,Luciano Becchio,Mauro Zarate,Julio Alcorse(4),Gaston Caprari,Ever Banega,Lionel Messi,Diego Corpache,Hector Bracamonte and Roberto Ayala.

-Gerard Himself- said...

obviously the loss of Manu will hurt the Spurs, but they still have Roger Mason jr. as the shooting guard position. I think they'll beat the Mavs anyway.

VJ Rabid said...

Hey John and Co., I just got done watching the Blazers-Rockets Game 1. My views, which were present earlier, but confirmed by the game have been posted on my website.

I may be in the minority, but I actually like that the Rockets don't have Tracy McGrady.

McGrady doesn't really have that can-do attitude and fighting spirit that the Rockets have right now and in that sense, he has been the odd man out.

Also, having watched Ron Artest play from his days at St. John's, I think Artest has the swagger, toughness and even the game to step up as Houston's perimeter go-to guy.

I actually believe that 2009 is a great opportunity for the Rockets to win it all with the opposing stars injured and NBA in flux.

VJ Rabid said...

My bad, forgot to post the link to my latest column (about the Houston Rockets).

khandor said...

re: Ginobili

Agree, 100%.

re: Oberto

Agree, 100%. Popovich is making a huge mistake playing Matt Bonner, etc., ahead of Fabricio.

IMO, the Spurs only hope is to go with a retro line-up that looks like this:

STARTERS
Parker + Finley + Bowen + Oberto + Duncan

KEY SUBS
Mason, Udoka, Bonner, Gooden & Thomas

re: Herrmann

Agree, 100%.

Anybody else but the Cavs and the Pistons would still have a chance of getting through the first round ... but, no such luck this year, as LBJ & Co. are simply too powerful right now to stumble vs Det.

re: Scola

Luis is simply a beast who really knows how to play.

The Rockets are as good as anyboday else in the NBA right now, save for the Lakers and the Cavs.

Fred said...

I understand why Pop is choosing to sit Oberto. Oberto is on the team greatly because of his chemistry with Manu. When Manu and Oberto are on the floor together, they have that subtle chemistry that derives from playing with each other for so long. Oberto is always in the right spot and Manu always finds him for a few layups. However, with Manu injured, Oberto cannot be utilized and so he sits. What I do not understand is why Pop is playing Bonner over Gooden. Gooden should be getting the majority of the minutes and Bonner should be coming off the bench. In Game 1, we saw the potential. Gooden and Duncan built our biggest lead of 13 when they were in the game together. Unfortunately, it was a brief appearance for that lineup. I assume we will go to the Gooden/Duncan tandem more in the games to come.

Larry said...

Lebron James has been nothing short of amazing this season. Not that I've just said anything new, but seriously, can he be stopped? I don't even think this guy could get injured, he's just a tank. I'm originally from LA and watched Kobe's entire career, but Lebron has really surpassed him this year. I'm not saying that's what will happen in the Finals (if it gets to that) but it does feel like Lebron tries every game and is virtually unstoppable.

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