Comparing with previous WCQ campaigns

Let's make a memory exercise just to see how we are doing overall in this World Cup Qualifying campaign.

Ever since the qualification for France 1998, South American national teams have been all competing in only one group of 10, with every team facing each other twice (home and away). Before that, they were divided in two groups (some times more than two groups) and they played teams from their group in a one-month period. The form team, or the lucky one, would often advance, other than the best out of a period of two years of facing every team in the region both home and away.

To add to this explanation, there's something that helps us compare this campaign with the two previous ones. In France 1998, the order was different. Besides, since Brazil were World Cup holders and automatically qualified, there were only 9 teams taking place in the tournament. We can't really compared the current campaign with the one from 1998.

Now, if we compare the 2002 and 2006 campaigns with the current one (10 teams, home and away and same order in the fixtures), here's the result we get.

After the 12th round of matches, Argentina had collected:

29 points in 2002
25 points in 2006
19 points in 2010

Yes, our production when it comes to points collection clearly decreased. OK, but...let's read a little bit in detail into those numbers.

First of all, that BIELSA's team of Argentina set the record of 43 points at the end of the qualifying campaign for 2002. It was a product of 13 wins, 4 draws and only 1 defeat (away to Brazil). In my opinion, that campaign will be impossible to match, let alone beat.

It would be unfair to jump at Diego's jugular because we have 10 points less from what he had in 2002 or six less than this time of the year before Germany 2006. I guess you'll all agree with that. He's only been in charge for two matches and got 50% of the points at stake.

Competition in the region is getting fiercer and fiercer. Teams like Venezuela (even when they haven't taken points from us) are improving and winning games. Venezuela finished their 2002 qualification campaign with 16 points. They had 18 for 2006 and with six games to go, they already have 13 this time.

HOW MANY POINTS DO WE NEED TO QUALIFY?

Let's take a look at the qualified teams for previous World Cups and have in mind the fifth placed team (the one with a right to participate in a playoff to get to the World Cup), needed 27 points in 2002 and 25 points in 2006.

After 10 weeks in the 2002 WCQ campaign, Argentina had 29 points and were leading the standings. Behind them:

Brazil 21 (same as this time around); Paraguay 19; Ecuador and Uruguay 15.

For 2006, Argentina had 25 points and were ahead of Brazil (19); Paraguay (16); Ecuador (13) and Uruguay (11).

Based on statistics and what happened in the previous WCQ tournament, you can say we would need 6 points from our next 6 matches to at least make it to South Africa 2010 through the playoffs by finishing 5th in South America.

But leaders Paraguay are at 24 points (less that what Argentina had in both 2002 and 2006). Teams are beating each other in ways it didn't happen in the past. Chile are pretty much in the mix. Things are changing all the time.

THE KEY IS TO IMPROVE THE AWAY FORM

Several teams still have a good enough shot at that coveted fifth spot and away wins are extremely rare! Out of the 10 matches played between last weekend and Wednesday, only Chile managed to get an away win (at bottom-placed Perú).

This is very true, especially with Argentina.

It's our away form that's making the difference this time around.

Let's see...in 2002 (the record-setting campaign), we won four out of our six away matches up to the 12th round, with one draw (Bolivia) and one defeat (Brazil).

In 2006, we won at Bolivia, Perú and Venezuela, managed draws in Colombia and Chile and lost to Brazil for a 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss record.

In the current campaign, we have only defeated Venezuela away from home. Draws with Perú and Brazil and defeats at Colombia, Chile and Bolivia have put is in an uncomfortable position.

Our next visits are not exactly walks in the park: Ecuador (round 14); Paraguay (round 16) and Uruguay (round 18), but with good results at home, we will surely be able to secure enough points to make it to South Africa.

Again, things are tighter than ever before and the good news is that Argentina are 5 points clear from the 6th and 7th placed teams: Colombia and Ecuador. A win in Buenos Aires against Colombia will make it 8 points with only 15 to go. A win in Quito (not looking very likely, but nothing impossible) would also separate Argentina from Ecuador by a good margin of points.

Add to that the fact that Ecuador and Colombia still have to face each other (round 15 in Colombia) and that both have to play Uruguay, which means all of those teams will take points from each other. It's not that easy to cut the distance when you're coming from behind.

Look on the bright side!